Melfort Stats - How is our market really doing? A long, but interesting read.
Sales in Melfort were down 50.0%, going from 6 in April 2019 to 3 in April 2020, and down 65.0% in the overall region, going from 20 to 7. In Melfort, sales were 58.3% below the 5-year average (and 65.1% below the 10-year average), while in the larger region, sales were 59.8% below the 5-year average (and 66.0% below the 10-year average). Year-to-Date (YTD) sales in Melfort fell 54.5% over last year, going from 22 to 10, while YTD sales in the larger region also fell 32.3%, going from 62 to 42.
Sales volume was down 64.9% in the city, going from $1.1M to $0.4M in 2020 (69.9% below the 5-year average, and 75.8% below the 10-year average). YTD sales volume in the city was $2.0M, a decrease of 54.0% from last year. In the region, sales volume was down 69.2%, going from $2.6M to $0.8M (72.7% below the 5-year average and 76.6% below the 10-year average). YTD sales volume also decreased 29.8% in the region, falling from $8.9M in 2019 to $6.3M in 2020.
The number of new listings in April 2020 fell significantly from the number last year. In Melfort, new listings fell 50.0%, going from 16 to 8 (41.2% below the 5-year average and 52.9% below the 10-year average), while in the region the situation was even worse, with new listings falling 61.1% from 72 last year to 28 this year. Active listings also rose 1.8% in Melfort (up from 56 to 57) and 14.3% in the region (down from 258 to 221). The sales to listing ratio was 37.5% in Melfort and 25.0% in the region suggesting that the market favours sellers in the area.
Homes in Melfort stayed on the market an average of 118 days in April—down 24.8% from 157 days last year (but still above the 5-year average of 93 days and the 10-year average of 91). Homes in the region stayed on the market somewhat longer than homes in the city at 130 days on average in 2020, but also down from an average of 164 days last year.
Median home prices in Melfort went from $222,850 to $130,000 (a decrease of 41.7%) and were approximately 28.6% below the 5-year and 30.1% below the 10-year average median price. Median home prices in the region also fell 11.9%, going from $115,750 to $102,000 which is 34.0% below the 5-year and 34.3% below the 10-year average median price.
The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation released a Housing Market Outlook (HMO) providing the forward-looking analysis of Canada's housing markets. Published annually, this helps anticipate emerging trends in Canada's new home, resale and rental housing markets at the national, provincial and local level. The housing outlook is subject to unprecedented uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Following large declines in 2020, housing starts, sales and prices are expected to start to recover by mid-2021 as pandemic containment measures are lifted and economic conditions gradually improve. Sales and prices are likely to remain below their pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of our forecast horizon in 2022. The precise timing and speed of the recovery is highly uncertain because the virus’s future path is not yet known.
The national and provincial economic outlook is subject to considerable risk given the rapid evolution of COVID-19, the speed at which the global economy and financial markets are reacting, and the unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the severity and duration of the pandemic. Canada will see a historic recession in 2020 with significant falls in indicators of the housing market. This outcome reflects measures to contain the pandemic to protect public health, and cutbacks in economic activity. The global reach of the pandemic lowered demand for oil, aggravating global excess supply, and resulted in falling oil prices, which will exacerbate declines in the economies of Canada’s oil-producing provinces.
Our range of potential scenarios indicates that Canada could see declines in output, employment and immigration exceeding those observed during the recession of 2008-2009. These declines will in turn drive large falls in housing starts and sales in 2020. House prices will be lower than recent levels by the end of the year. According to our forecast range, Canada’s housing markets could start to rebound by the end of the first half of 2021, once the unprecedented medical emergency abates sufficiently to allow containment measures to be relaxed, and consumer and business confidence to recover.
However, the exact timing and length of the economic recovery cannot currently be forecast with any degree of certainty since exceptional fiscal and monetary policy measures are being undertaken. Unfortunately, a more severe and sustained recession could also emerge if the pandemic were not contained, delaying recovery. The high uncertainty regarding the path of the pandemic is reflected in our wider forecast ranges. Provincial forecasts are subject to similar variability, although Alberta and Saskatchewan are likely to experience more prolonged downturns due to the additional negative impacts on output and employment from lower oil prices.
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